Calculating The Baccarat House Edge
Initially, you’ll want to know the house edge on any bet, so you can make the most informed choice in the next coup. There are three foundational bets in Baccarat. Those are a bet on the Player to win, a bet on the Banker to win, and a bet on the coup ending in a Tie. Here are the numbers according to an 8-deck game of Baccarat.
The Player To Win
In Baccarat, the Player’s hand is only slightly less likely to win, about 1.23% to be more precise. The player will win a Baccarat coup 44.62% of the time. This makes placing a wager on the player to win a pretty safe bet in many cases.
For example, you wager $1, there are three possible outcomes. Should you wager be on the player, your chances of winning are just under 45%. IF you win, the payout for your prediction is $1 along with your bet being returned. IF the Banker ends up winning in this scenario, you lose the $1 bet you made. If the result is a Tie, you lose the $1 bet, as well. The house edge that the Player will in is 1.2% with no payout for the player.
The Banker To Win
The Banker’s hand is slightly more likely to end up the winning In a Baccarat coup. This makes it the safest bet of the three foundational bets to make while playing. The Banker will end up winning any given coup about 45.85% of the time.
In this case, if you are betting on the Banker to win, your chances of winning are just under 46%. The same three possible outcomes are available in this case. However, if the banker wins, you will only collect $0.95 on your $1 wager. This is because online casinos most often charge a commission on Banker bets that pay out. That commission is most commonly 5% of the payout. If the Player wins in this scenario, you lose your $1 wager. If the result is a Tie, you will also lose that $1 wager. The house edge for the Banker winning is 1.06%. Notice that it is lower than the Player bet. This is why the casino will charge a commission on Banker Bets that pay out.
The Tie
The Tie is a very infrequent occurrence on the Baccarat tables. It is so infrequent, in fact, that it occurs only 9.53% of the time. This makes it a real longshot of a bet and one of the poorest choices if you’re looking to secure a safe wager.
You’ve got to be feeling lucky if you are betting on a Tie in Baccarat. That’s because you have a less than 10% of winning on this wager. However, this bet’s poor odds make it the highest paying foundational bet in the game. The house edge for a Tie is 14.36%. If the Banker and Player Tie, you’ll earn $8 to your $1 wager. If either the banker or the Player win in this scenario, your $1 wager is lost.
Here’s the bet, payout, and house edge based on an 8-deck shoe:
| Player | 1 to 1 | 1.24% |
| Banker | 19 to 20 | 1.06% |
| Tie | 8 to 1 | 14.36% |
Here are the bet, payout, and house edge based on a 6-deck shoe:
| Player | 1 to 1 | 1.24% |
| Banker | 19 to 20 | 1.06% |
| Tie | 8 to 1 | 14.44% |
Baccarat Hand Probability
The amount of possible outcomes in Baccarat are truly staggering. When you consider the potential number of outcomes for varying sizes of decks, that number grows even larger. Because the most common style of Baccarat utilizes eight decks, we’ll use that as an example to illustrate the possible combinations of hands the player and banker can hold in any given coup along with the probability of each hand occurring.
| PLAYER CARDS | BANKER CARDS | PLAYER TOTAL | BANKER TOTAL | PROBABILITY |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 1.394% |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 1.400% |
| 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0.897% |
| 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0.901% |
| 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0.894% |
| 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0.897% |
| 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0.897% |
| 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0.901% |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0.894% |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0.897% |
| 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0.897% |
| 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0.901% |
| 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0.890% |
| 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 0.897% |
| 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0.894% |
| 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 0.897% |
| 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 0.897% |
| 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0.897% |
| 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 0.897% |
| 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 0.901% |
| 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 1.394% |
| 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0.897% |
| 2 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 0.894% |
| 2 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 0.897% |
| 2 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 0.894% |
| 2 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 0.897% |
| 2 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 0.894% |
| 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 0.897% |
| 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0.890% |
| 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 0.898% |
| 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 1.400% |
| 2 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 0.901% |
| 2 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 0.897% |
| 2 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 0.901% |
| 2 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 0.897% |
| 2 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 0.901% |
| 2 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 0.897% |
| 2 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 0.901% |
| 2 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 0.898% |
| 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0.897% |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0.771% |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0.660% |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0.659% |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0.660% |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 0.659% |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 0.660% |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0.451% |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 0.452% |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 0.451% |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 0.452% |
| 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0.774% |
| 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0.662% |
| 2 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 0.660% |
| 2 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 0.663% |
| 2 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 0.661% |
| 2 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 0.663% |
| 2 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 0.454% |
| 2 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 0.453% |
| 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 0.453% |
| 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 0.454% |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0.069% |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0.565% |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0.567% |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0.634% |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 0.774% |
| 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.069% |
| 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0.522% |
| 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0.524% |
| 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0.522% |
| 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0.662% |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0.069% |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0.482% |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0.592% |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0.590% |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0.660% |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0.069% |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0.483% |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0.663% |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0.660% |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0.663% |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0.413% |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0.553% |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0.659% |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0.661% |
| 3 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 0.345% |
| 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0.484% |
| 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 0.660% |
| 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0.663% |
| 3 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 0.069% |
| 3 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 0.207% |
| 3 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0.345% |
| 3 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 0.454% |
| 3 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 0.138% |
| 3 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 0.276% |
| 3 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0.453% |
| 3 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 0.108% |
| 3 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 0.108% |
| 3 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 0.177% |
| 3 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 0.314% |
| 3 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 0.453% |
| 3 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 0.069% |
| 3 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 0.177% |
| 3 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 0.177% |
| 3 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 0.315% |
| 3 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 0.454% |
| 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.580% |
| 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.486% |
| 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.484% |
| 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0.470% |
| 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0.356% |
| 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0.356% |
| 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 0.340% |
| 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0.308% |
| 3 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 0.308% |
| 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 0.308% |
| 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.493% |
| 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0.410% |
| 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0.410% |
| 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0.395% |
| 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0.290% |
| 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0.291% |
| 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 0.290% |
| 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0.259% |
| 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 0.258% |
| 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 0.258% |
| 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0.484% |
| 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0.402% |
| 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0.400% |
| 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0.386% |
| 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0.290% |
| 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0.266% |
| 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0.266% |
| 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0.251% |
| 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 0.250% |
| 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 0.250% |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.475% |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0.393% |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.391% |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0.376% |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0.280% |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0.240% |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0.240% |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 0.241% |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0.240% |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0.240% |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0.493% |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0.411% |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0.409% |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0.411% |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0.313% |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 0.283% |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 0.258% |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0.259% |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0.259% |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0.259% |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0.505% |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0.423% |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0.421% |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0.422% |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0.342% |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0.310% |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 0.269% |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 0.270% |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0.270% |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 0.270% |
| 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0.377% |
| 3 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0.320% |
| 3 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0.319% |
| 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0.320% |
| 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 0.303% |
| 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 0.272% |
| 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0.239% |
| 3 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 0.215% |
| 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 0.215% |
| 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 0.216% |
| 3 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0.394% |
| 3 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0.337% |
| 3 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 0.336% |
| 3 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 0.337% |
| 3 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 0.336% |
| 3 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 0.304% |
| 3 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 0.272% |
| 3 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 0.231% |
| 3 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 0.231% |
| 3 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 0.232% |
| 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0.370% |
| 3 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0.314% |
| 3 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 0.313% |
| 3 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 0.289% |
| 3 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 0.288% |
| 3 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 0.273% |
| 3 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 0.240% |
| 3 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 0.208% |
| 3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0.208% |
| 3 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 0.209% |
| 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0.368% |
| 3 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 0.312% |
| 3 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 0.311% |
| 3 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 0.296% |
| 3 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 0.271% |
| 3 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 0.271% |
| 3 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 0.238% |
| 3 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 0.207% |
| 3 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 0.206% |
| 3 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0.206% |
Baccarat Side Bet Odds
When you are able to place side bets, the game gets more interesting. However, there are very few that can be found at an abundance of venues., Most side bets are known for being unique to one region or one online casino. Here are some examples of probability and payouts as they relate to common side bets you can place on any given Baccarat coup.
Big and Small
A side bet you may or may not be able to find at the online casino of your choice, but found at many Playtech casinos, the 4Big and Small side bet is one made on the total number of cards held by both the banker and the player at the end of a coup. Based on a six and eight deck game of Baccarat the house edge, probability of winning, and payout are:
Six-deck Baccarat
| TOTAL CARDS | PROBABILITY | PAYOUT | HOUSE EDGE |
| 4 | 37.893% | 3:2 | 5.27% |
| 5 | 30.354% | 2:1 | 4.35% |
| 6 | 31.754% | 2:1 | 4.35% |
Eight-deck Baccarat
| TOTAL CARDS | PROBABILITY | PAYOUT | HOUSE EDGE |
| 4 | 37.879% | 3:2 | 5.27% |
| 5 | 30.034% | 2:1 | 4.35% |
| 6 | 31.769% | 2:1 | 4.35% |
Dragon Bonus
A popular pair of side bets found in Mini –Baccarat games, the Dragon bonus pays based on the spread of a player of banker win. In the tables below, you will find the condition and payout for both dragon bonus player wins and dragon bonus banker wins.
Dragon Bonus Player Win
| CONDITION | PAYOUT | PROBABILITY |
| Win by 9 | 30:1 | 0.368% |
| Win by 8 | 10:1 | 0.682% |
| Win by 7 | 6:1 | 1.792% |
| Win by 6 | 4:1 | 2.826% |
| Win by 5 | 2:1 | 3.324% |
| Win by 4 | 1:1 | 3.737% |
| Natural win | 1:1 | 16.259% |
| Natural tie | 0 | 1.787% |
| Loss | -1 | 69.224% |
Dragon Bonus Banker Win
| CONDITION | PAYOUT | PROBABILITY |
| Win by 9 | 30:1 | 0.308% |
| Win by 8 | 10:1 | 0.566% |
| Win by 7 | 6:1 | 1.591% |
| Win by 6 | 4:1 | 2.385% |
| Win by 5 | 2:1 | 3.147% |
| Win by 4 | 1:1 | 4.024% |
| Natural win | 1:1 | 16.259% |
| Natural tie | 0 | 1.787% |
| Loss | -1 | 69.933% |
Dragon Bonus House Edge
| DECKS | PLAYER | BANKER |
| 4 | 2.70% | 9.42% |
| 6 | 2.67% | 9.39% |
| 8 | 2.65% | 9.37% |
Now you’re equipped to player Baccarat as well as James Bond, perhaps the most famous personality to ever sit down to a coup. These odds give you a good idea of what to expect while playing and should provide good information on your probability of winning no matter what bet you place. If you haven’t had a look at them already, you’ll want to review our How To Play Baccarat, Baccarat Rules, and Baccarat Betting Strategy resources. Once you’ve got the confidence to begin betting, you can find exceptional Baccarat games using our recommended online casinos.
